A case-based reasoning approach to bankruptcy prediction modeling

................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1. OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY............................................................. 1 Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) .................................................... 2 Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling ................................................ 5 Research Objectives..................................................................... 6 Research Method ........................................................................ 7 Expected Contribution................................................................. 8 Summary....................................................................................... 9 2. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE.................................................... 11 CBR Literature.......................................................................... 11 Bankruptcy Modeling Literature................................................ 21 Summary..................................................................................... 29 3. RESEARCH METHOD ...................................................................... 34 Research Objectives ................................................................. 34 Hypotheses................................................................................ 35 Phase I: Design and Construction of the CBR System 36 Phase II: CBR Compared to L o g it.......................................... 48 Sample Selection and Data Collection ..................................... 50 Statistical Tests .......................................................................... 52 Summary..................................................................................... 53 4. RESULTS............................................................................................. 54 Sample Selection Procedures.................................................... 54 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................. 57 CBR Analysis ............................................................................ 61 Holdout Samples........................................................................ 63 Tests of Hypothesis One ........................................................... 65